印度河流域气温、降水、蒸发及干旱变化特征          下载免费PDF全文

赵建婷  王艳君  苏布达  陶辉  姜彤 《干旱区地理》2020,43(2):349-359

基于印度河流域及周围54个地面气象站气温、降水资料，结合CRU气温和GPCC降水全球格点化陆面再分析资料，通过插值构建了一套0.5°×0.5°分辨率1980—2016年逐月格点数据集。采用Thornthwaite方法计算了潜在蒸散发，基于标准化降水蒸散指数（SPEI），探讨了印度河流域气候变化及干旱演变特征。结果表明：（1）1980—2016年，印度河流域年平均气温以0.30℃·（10 a）^-1的速率呈显著上升趋势，21世纪初增温幅度最大；干季（11月~次年4月）升温速率较快，达0.36℃·（10 a）^-1，湿季（5~10月）增速0.25℃·（10 a）^-1。年降水量呈现少雨—多雨—少雨—多雨年代际振荡。伴随着持续升温，年和各季的潜在蒸发量增加显著。干季干旱频率较多，但湿季干旱强度高，各季干旱频率与降水呈现较一致的年代际波动；干旱的影响面积在干季呈现微弱地增加趋势，湿季却略有减少趋势。（2）空间上，除西北局部，流域其他区域的年和季平均气温、潜在蒸发量增加趋势显著，均达到95%置信水平。其中南部平原和东北山区升温幅度较高，南部平原区潜在蒸发量增加也较大。新德里到喀布尔的东南至西北带状区域的年和湿季降水量，以及喀布尔周围地区的干季降水量呈显著增加趋势。东南平原区和东北局部山区的干季，以及东北和西南局部山区的湿季呈现显著的干旱化态势，需要加强防灾减灾的意识并采取相应措施，以规避干旱增多带来的不利影响。  相似文献   

Simulation and projection of climate change using CMIP6 Muti-models in the Belt and Road Region     

YanRan Lü  Tong Jiang  YanJun Wang  BuDa Su  JinLong Huang  Hui Tao 《寒旱区科学》2020,12(6):389-403

Climate condition over a region is mostly determined by the changes in precipitation, temperature and evaporation as the key climate variables. The countries belong to the Belt and Road region are subjected to face strong changes in future climate. In this paper, we used five global climate models from the latest Sixth Phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to evaluate future climate changes under seven combined scenarios of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and the Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP4-3.4, SSP4-6.0 and SSP5-8.5) across the Belt and Road region. This study focuses on undertaking a climate change assessment in terms of future changes in precipitation, air temperature and actual evaporation for the three distinct periods as near-term period (2021-2040), mid-term period (2041-2060) and long-term period (2081-2100). To discern spatial structure, K?ppen-Geiger Climate Classification method has been used in this study. In relative terms, the results indicate an evidence of increasing tendency in all the studied variables, where significant changes are anticipated mostly in the long-term period. In addition to, though it is projected to increase under all the SSP-RCP scenarios, greater increases will be happened under higher emission scenarios (SSP5-8.5 and SSP3-7.0). For temperature, robust increases in annual mean temperature is found to be 5.2 °C under SSP3-7.0, and highest 7.0 °C under SSP5-8.5 scenario relative to present day. The northern part especially Cold and Polar region will be even more warmer (+6.1 °C) in the long-term (2081-2100) period under SSP5-8.5. Similarly, at the end of the twenty-first century, annual mean precipitation is inclined to increase largely with a rate of 2.1% and 2.8% per decade under SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 respectively. Spatial distribution demonstrates that the largest precipitation increases are to be pronounced in the Polar and Arid regions. Precipitation is projected to increase with response to increasing warming most of the regions. Finally, the actual evaporation is projected to increase significantly with rate of 20.3% under SSP3-7.0 and greatest 27.0% for SSP5-8.5 by the end of the century. It is important to note that the changes in evaporation respond to global mean temperature rise consistently in terms of similar spatial pattern for all the scenarios where stronger increase found in the Cold and Polar regions. The increase in precipitation is overruled by enhanced evaporation over the region. However, this study reveals that the CMIP6 models can simulate temperature better than precipitation over the Belt and Road region. Findings of this study could be the reliable basis for initiating policies against further climate induced impacts in the regional scale.  相似文献   

高温高压条件下彭灌杂岩的强度对汶川地震发震机制的启示   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0       下载免费PDF全文

牛露  周永胜  姚文明  邵同宾  马玺  党嘉祥  何昌荣 《地球物理学报》2018,61(5):1728-1740

采用汶川地震震源区彭灌杂岩中代表性细粒花岗岩样品，在固体围压介质三轴实验系统上开展了高温高压流变实验研究.实验的温度和压力条件按照龙门山断层带5~30 km深度对应的温度和压力（静岩压）设定.利用偏光显微镜和扫描电镜对实验样品进行微观结构观察.实验结果表明，实验样品在10~20 km深度都具有很高的强度，彭灌杂岩在该深度处于脆性破裂-脆塑性转化域，而在20~30 km实验样品强度显著降低，彭灌杂岩进入塑性流变域，这与流变结构中的极限强度很接近.以花岗岩为代表的彭灌杂岩的破裂强度决定了中上地壳的强度，在15~20 km深度不仅强度达到最大值，而且控制了断层不稳定滑动，具备地震成核条件.因此，把彭灌杂岩强度随深度变化规律与流变结构和滑动稳定性参数（a-b）结合起来得出，彭灌杂岩在15~20 km的高强度是汶川地震的孕育和发生的必要条件.  相似文献   

南海北部陆缘珠江口盆地岩石圈热结构   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

唐晓音  黄少鹏  张功成  杨树春  胡圣标 《地球物理学报》2018,61(9):3749-3759

沉积盆地岩石圈热结构特征是岩石圈构造-热演化过程的综合反映和盆地热史恢复的约束条件，对盆地动力学研究和油气资源评价具有重要意义.由于海洋勘探难度大、勘探程度低，相对于大陆地区，边缘海盆地比较缺乏岩石圈热结构方面的研究.本文在收集整理珠江口盆地及邻区大地热流数据的基础上，补充收录了自2003年以来发表的新数据，绘制了研究区最新版的大地热流等值线图；基于中美合作双船地震剖面揭示的深部地壳结构计算了研究区的壳-幔热流、深部温度以及"热"岩石圈厚度.研究表明，珠江口盆地地壳热流介于18.7~28.6 mW·m^-2，地幔热流介于36.9~91.4 mW·m^-2，壳幔热流比值0.23~0.75；由陆架、陆坡至中央海盆，在地壳热流逐渐减小的情况下地表热流逐渐递增，说明地表热流分布主要受深部热作用控制；盆地"热"岩石圈厚度介于34.0~87.2 km，平均65.5 km，反映出显著拉张减薄的特征.  相似文献   

A multicatchment analysis of headwater and downstream temperature effects from contemporary forest harvesting          下载免费PDF全文

Kevin D. Bladon  Catalina Segura  Nicholas A. Cook  Sharon Bywater‐Reyes  Maryanne Reiter 《水文研究》2018,32(2):293-304

Stream temperature is a key physical water‐quality parameter, controlling many biological, chemical, and physical processes in aquatic ecosystems. Maintenance of cool stream temperatures during summer is critical for high‐quality aquatic habitat. As such, transmission of warm water from small, nonfish‐bearing headwater streams after forest harvesting could cause warming in downstream fish‐bearing stream reaches with negative consequences. In this study, we evaluate (a) the effects of contemporary forest management practices on stream temperature in small, headwater streams, (b) the transmission of thermal signals from headwater reaches after harvesting to downstream fish‐bearing reaches, and (c) the relative role of lithology and forest management practices in influencing differential thermal responses in both the headwater and downstream reaches. We measured summer stream temperatures both preharvest and postharvest at 29 sites—12 upstream sites (4 reference, 8 harvested) and 17 downstream sites (5 reference, 12 harvested)—across 3 paired watershed studies in western Oregon. The 7‐day moving average of daily maximum stream temperature (T_7DAYMAX) was greater during the postharvest period relative to the preharvest period at 7 of the 8 harvested upstream sites. Although the T_7DAYMAX was generally warmer in the downstream direction at most of the stream reaches during both the preharvest and postharvest period, there was no evidence for additional downstream warming related to the harvesting activity. Rather, the T_7DAYMAX cooled rapidly as stream water flowed into forested reaches ~370–1,420 m downstream of harvested areas. Finally, the magnitude of effects of contemporary forest management practices on stream temperature increased with the proportion of catchment underlain by more resistant lithology at both the headwater and downstream sites, reducing the potential for the cooling influence of groundwater.  相似文献   

华南陆缘高热流区的壳幔温度结构与动力学背景          下载免费PDF全文

张健  王蓓羽  唐显春  董淼  艾依飞 《地球物理学报》2018,61(10):3917-3932

华南陆缘是我国重要的矿产、地热资源区.晚中生代以来，在太平洋板块西向俯冲，地幔热对流活动共同作用下，该区出现多期岩浆-热事件和大规模爆发式成矿作用.在前人研究基础上，本文利用地表热流观测资料、地震剪切波资料、重力位球谐系数，计算了壳-幔温度结构，分析了动力学背景.计算结果表明：华南陆缘东南沿海地带，地壳10 km以浅温度达200℃以上，居里点温度475℃，莫霍面平均温度550℃.地壳浅层较热，花岗岩中放射性元素衰变放热是地壳浅层地下水热活动的重要热源，但地壳总体温度不高，为"冷壳热幔"型热结构.地幔中，90 km深度，温度950~1250℃；120 km深度，温度1050~1400℃；150 km深度，温度1200~1450℃；220 km深度，温度1500~1700℃."热"岩石圈底界深度在110~150 km之间，西深东浅.岩石圈内，地幔应力场为挤压-伸展相间格局；岩石圈之下，地幔应力场为一个以南昌为中心、长轴NE-SW向的椭圆.分析认为，晚中生代以来，太平洋板块的西向俯冲，导致华南陆缘在区域性SE向地幔对流背景上叠加局域性不稳定热扰动，在175~85Ma期间，上地幔物质向上流动，形成不同的岩浆活动高峰期.同时，岩石圈地幔受俯冲洋壳流体的影响，含水量高，黏度小，在地幔流切向应力场作用下，岩石圈底界由西向东"波浪"状减薄.现今岩石圈之下仍具备地幔小尺度热对流温度条件，但除地表浅层外，地壳整体温度不高，岩石圈构造稳定.  相似文献   

基于MODIS数据的湖北省地级以上城市城区地表温度变化分析     

李韶颖  车风  邵军  陈涛  周婧娟 《测绘与空间地理信息》2020,(2):76-78

基于MODIS数据,以湖北省地级以上城市城区为研究对象,通过对湖北省13个地级以上城市城区边界矢量数据与地表温度因子进行套合处理,采用叠置分析方法对2000、2015、2017年湖北省地级以上城市城区的地表温度进行统计,并分析城镇化建设对城区地表温度产生的影响。  相似文献   

基于一维综合孔径微波辐射计的海面温度反演研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

艾未华  冯梦延  陈冠宇  陆文 《海洋学报(英文版)》2020,42(5):115-122

Due to the low spatial resolution of sea surface temperature(T_S) retrieval by real aperture microwave radiometers,in this study, an iterative retrieval method that minimizes the differences between brightness temperature(T_B)measured and modeled was used to retrieve sea surface temperature with a one-dimensional synthetic aperture microwave radiometer, temporarily named 1 D-SAMR. Regarding the configuration of the radiometer, an angular resolution of 0.43° was reached by theoretical calculation. Experiments on sea surface temperature retrieval were carried out with ideal parameters; the results show that the main factors affecting the retrieval accuracy of sea surface temperature are the accuracy of radiometer calibration and the precision of auxiliary geophysical parameters. In the case of no auxiliary parameter errors, the greatest error in retrieved sea surface temperature is obtained at low T_S scene(i.e., 0.710 6 K for the incidence angle of 35° under the radiometer calibration accuracy of0.5 K). While errors on auxiliary parameters are assumed to follow a Gaussian distribution, the greatest error on retrieved sea surface temperature was 1.330 5 K at an incidence angle of 65° in poorly known sea surface wind speed(W)(the error on W of 1.0 m/s) over high W scene, for the radiometer calibration accuracy of 0.5 K.  相似文献   

獐子岛养殖区夏季底层水温快速变化的机理分析     

南学良  魏皓  凡仁福  杨伟 《海洋学报(英文版)》2020,42(5):46-54

Rapid changes in the near-bottom water temperature are important environmental factors that can significantly affect the growth and development of species in the bottom culture. The object of this research is to investigate the mechanism causing these rapid changes within a bottom culture area near the Zhangzi Island. The hydrographic transects observations in the North Yellow Sea(NYS) suggest that our mooring station is very close to the tidal mixing front. The horizontal advection of the tidal front has induced the observed tidal change of bottom temperature at the mooring station. Analysis of the mooring near-bottom temperature and current measurements show that the angle between the tidal current horizontal advection and the swing of the tidal front is crucial in determining the variation trend of temperature. When the angle equals 90°, the horizontal tidal current advects along the isotherms so the temperature remains the same. When the angle is between 0° and 90°, the seawater moves from deep water to the warmer coastal zone and the temperature decreases. In contrast, the horizontal tidal advection moves the coastal warm water to the mooring station and the water temperature increases when the angle is between 90° and 180°. The amplitude of the temperature change is proportional to the magnitude of the horizontal temperature gradient and the tidal excursion in the direction of the temperature gradient. This study may facilitate the choice of culture area in order to have a good aquaculture production.  相似文献   

The impact of northern Indian Ocean rivers on the Bay of Bengal using NEMO global ocean model     

Srivastava Atul  Gera Anith  Momin Imran M.  Mitra Ashis Kumar  Gupta Ankur 《海洋学报(英文版)》2020,39(3):45-55

The effect of river runoff over the northern Indian Ocean(NIO) especially over the Bay of Bengal(Bo B) has been studied using global Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean(NEMO). Two sensitivity experiments, with and without river runoff are conducted and the influence of river runoff on the Indian Ocean hydrography,stratification and circulation features are studied. It is found that due to river runoff surface salinity over the northern Bo B decreases by more than 5 and the East India Coastal Current strengthens by 2 cm/s during post monsoon season. The fresh river water reaches up to 15°N in the Bo B and is the main cause for low salinity there.Sea surface temperature in the northwestern Bo B increases by more than 0.2℃ due to the river runoff in summer monsoon while surface cooling upto 0.2℃ is seen in north-west part of Bo B in winter season. The seasonal mixed layer depth in the region is found to be dependent on river runoff. The effect of vertical shear and Brunt Vaisala frequency on stratification is also examined. The ocean water becomes highly stratified up to 3 035 m due to the river runoff. It is found that the energy required for mixing is high in the northern and coastal Bo B.  相似文献